Kerry in Lausanne, Switzerland.
On The Surface
After a decade-long power struggle, the United States and Iran have come to an agreement over the Iran nuclear program. Building off of the Lausanne Framework, a framework that primarily advocated partial dissolution and transition, a deal was struck that will not only change up the power spectrum within Iran but also the Middle East as a whole. This article will be mainly summarize the new deal’s components.
Much to the dismay of the American people, Iran will be able to continue its enrichment process without having to dismantle its current facilities. With the Iranian program running in the billions of dollars, this is only fair. Research presents another continuity with regard to this recent agreement. Not only will the development of a next generation of centrifuges persist, but Iran will be able to develop more advanced missile technology. These persisting facets of the Iranian program are not to be feared. The calculated changes defined by the agreement will check the growth of Iran’s program, and undermine any possible threats.
First and foremost is the shift from acute care to preventative care. The US and umbrella organizations such as the IAEA (a nuclear nonproliferation agency) will have authority to freely inspect Iranian facilities without prior notification. This opens the door for more U.S involvement in Iranian affairs, and is telling of what the future holds in store for the nuclear program. Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear stockpile will shrink to 2% of its former size. This is by far the most important change stipulated by the agreement. This decimation of Iran’s stockpile will set back any attempts to create a nuclear bomb by at least ten years, and give the U.S the opportunity to further install itself in Iranian affairs without the fear of imminent nuclear retaliation.
This is no doubt an end to a persistent problem, but speculation must be delegated to the future. Will Iran cease concentrated enrichment? Will the U.S garner a larger foothold in the Middle East than previously before? All of these are uncertain. What is certain is that Iran has finally relieved itself of the economic burden presented by brutal western sanctions. Iran’s Rouhani is now playing a delicate balancing act. A decision between economic prosperity and military power is being presented, but Tehran must realize that it cannot have both.